Mario Lopez writes from Bogotá: President Juan Manuel Santos has just announced some startling news. The Colombian government is in talks with the two main insurgent groups, FARC and ELN. The Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – began an insurgency in 1964. Its ideology is Marxist-Leninist and its goal a communist republic. Those were the heady days of Che Guevara and his focos or bases. Form an armed group in the jungles and then advance towards the cities. The Ejército de Liberation Nacional – the National Liberation Army – also came into being in 1964. It is Marxist and also aims for a communist republic.
By the 1990s, the two groups had penetrated over half of the territory of the republic. They were at the outskirts of the capital, Bogotá. The government set up paramilitary groups to counter them and the fighting was violent and brutal. Kidnapping for ransom and the drug trade provided the funds for the maintenance and expansion of the rebel forces.
President Pastrana began peace talks in 1999 but they broke down in 2002. FARC immediately kidnapped Ingrid Betancourt, a presidential candidate, to underline their reach and influence. This led to the election of Alvaro Uribe who initiated a hard-line approach towards the guerrillas. During his presidency there was a remorseless struggle to retake territory from the insurgents and to kill as many as possible. His campaign was partly financed by Washington. The top FARC commander was killed and FARC founder Manuel Marulanda died of natural causes in March 2008. A further significant blow was struck by government forces when they freed Betancourt and 14 other high profile hostages a few months later. The FARC commander in chief was killed in 2010 and his successor in November 2011. In February 2012 FARC announced that it was discontinuing its campaign of kidnapping for ransom. With the government in the ascendancy, FARC and ELN have agreed to enter into exploratory talks to end the insurgency.
Life is almost normal in Bogotá. There are not many kidnappings but there are still over 5,000 murders a year. The President has laid down three conditions. The first is that FARC and ELN have to acknowledge the mistakes they made in the past and not repeat them. The aim is to bring the conflict to an end. The third is that the Colombian army will carry on its operations and will maintain a presence in all parts of the country. This third demand means that the rebels will have to dissolve and vacate their focos.
There are perhaps 5,000 FARC rebels and more ELN insurgents. Will they lay down their arms and concede that their vision of a communist Colombia has disappeared? Hardly. In the past Venezuela provided a safe haven for the rebels when the Colombian army was closing in. What is to stop those who wish to continue the struggle moving to Venezuela? They can then relaunch their insurgency when they deem the moment opportune.
A more important question concerns Guevara’s concept of guerrilla warfare. If the rebels lay down their arms does it mean that Guevara will go down in history as another failed revolutionary? He is still an inspiration to many. The faithful will hope that another insurgency in the future will be successful. Russia and China no longer fund revolutionary groups. So drugs and kidnappings are the obvious way to make money. What is to become of the rebels’ drug factories deep in the Colombian jungle? Who will take them over? These exploratory talks are just the beginning of a long process. Meanwhile the drug trade in Colombia continues.
–End–
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