Claud Monbar writes from Kabul: The last of the 33,000 US surge troops hit continental America this week and, as everyone knows, President Hamid Karzai needs to start getting used to the idea that from now on it’s increasingly his war.
There’s no hiding in Kabul from the reality of the US exit from Helmand. We all knew they were going. They said so months ago. We all feel just as safe. In other words, we never felt safe anyway.
But the toughie comes now: what will the US do with the 68,000 troops it has left? The answer: they’ll do everything possible to keep them alive and not end up on the Taliban score sheet. If that makes it all sound some sort of game then you’ve hit it in one. That’s what this whole thing has been since 2001 – a mean, bad and ugly game played by the Americans and their mostly European yes men.
A whole shed-load of US and British officers have gone to Afghanistan in search of promotion. Show a soldier a war and he has to go. That’s what he is hired to do but with no Afghan row of medals, then he may as well take a career break.
Sad to say, in all wars it’s mostly the dudes who get killed in action on their service records. The ranchers get to be one, two and maybe even three stars. The irony is that however high or low you get on the military pay-grade in that overwhelmingly beautiful country, you still don’t fix the war.
At one time the blatantly obvious cliché-ridden one star with a name to make would spew out the conventional wisdom that there was no military solution to Afghanistan, only a political one. No one stood up and said wait a minute: without a military solution there cannot be a political one. In other words what are we doing in yet another fire fight that everyone knows we’re going to quit when shrouds get as common as empty gum wrappers?
So it has been with the surge. Talk to the Afghan insiders and they’ll tell you bluntly that they weren’t too happy when the surge troops arrived and they’re hardly sorry now that they’ve gone. If that sounds illogical considering the curb on Taliban activity during the surge, then it is not. It is part of the considerable opinion that says the American surge alienated many Afghans and that the Taliban capitalised on that US unpopularity.
This ignores the fact that many towns and cities in Kandahar and Helmand are better off from the big US influx that sent the Taliban going for cover. Now the last helmets are hung up in the US, the people there are waiting for the Taliban’s return. The statistics tell us something we have to learn about this war.
Afghanistan is split into about 400 districts. Between 45 and 50 per cent of all attacks on the people, the government and the ISAF forces take place in the ten southern districts. Want to see a war? That’s the place to go. Always has been. And don’t be fooled by the ISAF-NATO numbers.
The truth is this: killings are as great as when the surge troops arrived. In the first six months of 2010, 1267 civilians were killed. In the first six months of 2012, 1145 have been killed. Not much in it if you’re trying to claim success.
So who covers the US pull out? In theory, Afghan troops. British and American commanders tell pliant TV crews that the ANA are fine soldiers and the training has done a good job. They do not say that unlike the Taliban who are dedicated fighters, the ANA and especially the police are not dedicated. No commitment. Commitment gets you killed.
Simply, the ANA and police have not filled the gap left by the departed US surge troops and worse, they never will whatever the ISAF hand outs tell you.
The Taliban have a saying: “the Americans have all the watches and we [Taliban] have all the time”. In other words, when ISAF goes we will take over. Better believe it.
–End–
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Ben Delicious writes from London: If you are one of those mugs who roll their eyes and squeal with delight when they hear about the Duchess of Cambridge, formerly Kate Middleton, then this one is not for you. You can go back to watching trash on the box or reading celeb magazines. But if you have a cynical view of that supposed ‘match made in heaven’, then let me entertain you with a bit of sarcasm on the subject.
The problem with this whole ‘fairy tale marriage’ is that it has nothing of a fairy tale about it. Ms Middleton was quite determined in her quest to ‘bag her prince’ and used every trick in the book to get him to marry her. It was a cold, calculating operation on her part and if Prince Charles had had any sense he would have put an end to this relationship once and for all. The interests of the British monarchy had nothing to do with the ambitions of the Middleton family to become related to the royals. It’s not some Monaco where the local royals marry actresses and stewardesses, seeing nothing wrong with it.
Gu Suhua writes from Beijing: Leon Panetta, US Defence Secretary, is in town. Besides calling for closer Sino-American military relations, he is warning that the territorial conflicts between China and its neighbours could escalate. Cool heads are needed to bring down the temperature of protests and find a solution. The ongoing demonstrations against Japan show no sign of abating. Symbolically September 18th is the anniversary of the Mukden incident. This occurred in 1931 when Japanese soldiers blew up part of the South Manchurian Railway, then owned by Japan. They blamed it on terrorists but it was used as a pretext to invade Manchuria. The anti-Japanese fury has led to companies such as Panasonic and Canon suspending operations.
Another question surfaces here: why has the dispute with Japan surfaced now? After all, the disagreement over the sovereignty of the islands has been ongoing for decades. Is there an attempt to deflect attention from the deteriorating state of the economy in China? Mobilise the population in protest against an external foe in order to bind people together. Very communist, that. The nation is entering choppy waters so the ship of state has to be steadied. Criticism of the government because of economic hardships can be presented as anti-patriotic.
Ossie Makepeace writes from Kabul. Lots of people these days insist that the coalition forces should have never gone into Afghanistan. These members of the Let’s Get Out Now brigade are basically saying: to hell with Afghans, let’s pull out. President Hamid Karzai, the add, can go to hell as well. As you can see it from here in Kabul, he won’t have far to go.
What’s more, when Hague and Hammond say nothing that’s going on at the moment will change British strategy they talk amazing self-important nonsense.
Henry Forth writes from London: The Foreign Office has received a list of suspect war crimes committed by the Syrian military. The list is compiled by yet another UN commission. For the past twelve months the commission’s task has been to register cases of abuse of human rights in Syria.
He gave the Council a confidential list of the individuals who might stand accused of war crimes.
Felicity Bushmill writes from London: The Duchess of Cambridge is pregnant. She is three months gone, as my sister-in-law’s earthy midwife puts it. She’s delivered six of my nephews and nieces so I bow to her instincts if not her inside knowledge.
So that’s it darlings: Kate’s carrying. What fun we’re all going to have. Day by day mass observation of the girl. Millions of eyes, perhaps billions, all tuned like some sensitive ultra sound on the regal tum.
Mario Lopez writes from Madrid: More demonstrations against the cuts announced by Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish Prime Minister taking place. A million on the streets of Catalunya demanding independence for the province. ‘Rajoy is a puppet in the hands of the European Commission,’ snarled one protester. A hot summer is giving way to an even hotter autumn. Can the country hold together or will the richer parts, Catalunya and the Basque country, say ‘adios’ and break the country up?
No one in Catalunya or elsewhere in Spain has proposed the obvious solution to the mess that the country is in. Exit the euro and reintroduce the peseta. This would permit a massive devaluation and set Spain on the road to recovery. There is an obsession in Spain that in order to be part of Europe they have to be in the European Union and the euro. This is due to the fact that the country was marginalised by Europe until Generalissimo Franco dies in 1976. This has left deep scars. Madrid does not want to be cast aside again. In order to be accepted as good Europeans they have to support every initiative emanating from Brussels. Not even the present conservative government will put Spanish interests first.
